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Bitcoin is the 'most crowded' investment in the world, according to widely followed investor survey

10:10
Donat Sorokin | TASS | Getty Images
The Bitcoin cryptocurrency symbol on a stone sphere monument painted black by unidentified persons in Oktyabrskaya Square in Yekaterinberg, Russia.

Bitcoin is the 'most crowded' investment in the world, according to widely followed investor survey


Bitcoin tops the list of "most crowded trades" — a measure of sentiment on which popular investment could quickly reverse its gains— in Bank of America Merrill Lynch's December global fund manager survey.
  • The survey finds 32 percent of respondents named bitcoin as the most crowded trade, up from 26 percent in September when the digital currency first led the list.
  • Another crowded trade is betting on the stocks of U.S. and Chinese technology giants, 29 percent of respondents said.


  • More traditional money managers are worried about bitcoin than ever before.
    The soaring digital currency topped the list of "most crowded trades" — a measure of sentiment on which popular investment could quickly reverse its gains— in Bank of America Merrill Lynch's December global fund manager survey released Tuesday.

    The survey found that 32 percent of respondents named bitcoin as the most crowded trade in the financial world, up from 26 percent in September when the digital currency first led the list. At the time, bitcoin had surged about 375 percent for the year to $4,600.

    But clearly that was not the top, despite a rocky September for bitcoin in which the digital currency briefly plunged more than $2,000 as China cracked down on cryptocurrencies and J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called bitcoin a "fraud" that "won't end well."

    December's "most crowded trades"


    Bitcoin has roughly quadrupled since September to briefly trade above $19,000 in the last week. Fueling part of the rally was the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME, the world's largest futures exchange, and its competitor Cboe's Futures Exchange.

    The BofAML survey, conducted from Dec. 8 to 14, covered 172 global fund managers with a total $480 billion in assets under management. It's widely considered one of the best surveys of investors conducted on Wall Street.

    Another crowded trade is betting on the stocks of U.S. and Chinese technology giants, 29 percent of respondents said.

    "FAANG," or Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix and Google's parent Alphabet are each up nearly 37 percent to 60 percent this year, versus the S&P 500's 20 percent gain. Chinese e-commerce conglomerate Alibaba has soared 97 percent, search engine Baidu has climbed nearly 47 percent and Hong Kong-listed tech and gaming giant Tencent has leaped more than 110 percent.

    The term "FAANG" came about in reference to a handful of high-flying stocks in which much of the market's gains were concentrated. The surge of the Chinese conglomerates has earned them the nickname "BAT."

    Bitcoin performance (July to December)

    Technology stocks overall are the best performers in the S&P this year with gains of nearly 40 percent.

    However, investors are not overexuberant about the gains. The BofAML survey found that allocation to tech stocks in December fell to the long-term average of 24 percent overweight.

    Overall levels of cash holdings among the fund managers rose to 4.7 percent, slightly above the 10-year average of 4.5 percent and back into the territory signaling "buy," BofAML said.

    Global money managers also called out short volatility, or betting on calm markets, as a crowded trade. Noted investors such as DoubleLine CEO Jeffery Gundlach have said for months that a "massive amount of money" is short volatility indexes, and the extended period of subdued market performance should soon result in a sharp increase in volatility.

    ALSO READ: How to buy bitcoin: A beginner's guide to purchasing the cryptocurrency and not being scammed

    Source: cnbc.

    Analyst who predicted bitcoin's rise now sees it hitting $300,000-$400,000

    07:11

    Bitcoin will surge past $20,000 and continue its meteoric march into six figures, according to independent research analyst Ronnie Moas.

    "Bitcoin is already up 500 percent since I recommended it in the beginning of July, and I'm looking for another 500 percent move from here," said Moas, the founder of Standpoint Research, a self-described "one-man operation" based in Miami.

    Analyst who predicted bitcoin's rise now sees it hitting $300,000-$400,000

    "The end-game on bitcoin is that it will hit $300,000 to $400,000 in my opinion, and it will be the most valuable currency in the world," Moas told CNBC's "The Rundown." 

    "I don't know how much gold there is in the ground, but I know how much bitcoin there is, and in two years there will be 300 million people in the world trying to get their hands on a few million bitcoin." -Ronnie Moas, founder, Standpoint Research
     
    The analyst's comments came as the CME, the world's largest futures exchange, launched its own bitcoin futures contract. The Cboe did the same earlier this month.

    His aggressively bullish call — a near-$380,000 dollar appreciation on today's prices — is based on the idea that since only 21 million bitcoin can ever exist. Increasing demand for the digital currency will naturally drive its price up, he said.

    "I don't know how much gold there is in the ground, but I know how much bitcoin there is, and in two years there will be 300 million people in the world trying to get their hands on a few million bitcoin.

    This mind-boggling supply and demand imbalance is what is going to drive the price higher," Moas said.

    Not everyone agrees

    Moas said he believes his price target is a conservative call, but others disagree.

    "We think that it's risky," Vasu Menon, vice president of Wealth Management at Singapore-based bank OCBC, told CNBC.

    "I don't see strong fundamental drivers for this bitcoin rally," he said.
    But Moas says the party is just getting started.

    "I look at bitcoin the same way I look at Amazon," he said. "The way to play Amazon for the last 15 years was to buy it, hold it, and add on the dips. That's exactly the way I think people should be playing bitcoin."

    Bitcoin news: Bitcoin just started trading on the world’s biggest exchange — here's why that matters

    07:11
    Bitcoin just started trading on the world’s biggest exchange

    The world’s biggest exchange just joined the bitcoin revolution.

    Bitcoin futures started trading Sunday night at CME Group Inc.’s venue, a week after Chicago rival Cboe Global Markets Inc. introduced similar derivatives on the volatile cryptocurrency. CME is a much bigger player in futures, so many traders expected it to make a bigger splash in the nascent space.

    CME got off to a faster start with more efficient pricing. Its most-active contract changed hands 221 times in the first hour versus 570 during Cboe’s debut. But that’s a win because CME’s contracts are five times more valuable — they’re tied to five bitcoins compared with only one with Cboe’s futures.
    “People were better prepared” for the start of trading at CME, said Bobby Cho, head of trading at Cumberland, the cryptocurrency trading unit of DRW Holdings LLC. “They knew how they were going to hedge their positions.”

    CME’s futures traded at about 2 per cent above bitcoin itself as of 11:56 a.m. in London; in the first day, Cboe’s got as much as 13 per cent above, a sign trading was relatively inefficient. Bitcoin today climbed 9 per cent from its Friday New York close to US$19,190, approaching the record US$19,511 reached hours earlier.

    The CME and Cboe bitcoin futures have some distinct features. The price of Cboe’s product is derived from the cryptocurrency’s price at a single exchange; CME’s is based off four.

    “We were waiting for the launch of the CME futures because the price is more robust and the exchange trades much larger volumes,” Jose Miguel Nascimento, head trader at cryptocurrency fund Solidus Capital, said in a telephone interview from Mexico City. “Futures are a very positive development for the bitcoin market, as it will help everyone from miners to traders hedge risk, and having a price curve will help limit price swings.”

    The CME futures are another step into the mainstream financial world for an asset created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as an alternative to banks and government-issued currencies. The contracts, which settle in dollars and trade on regulated exchanges, can be bought by institutional investors that are prohibited from buying bitcoin directly on largely unregulated exchanges.

    “One of the biggest issues when it comes to investing institutionally in digital assets is banks and larger institutions can’t hold an unregulated instrument in their balance sheet, and a futures contract is something they can hold,” said Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital-asset strategy at VanEck Associates Corp. With futures, “you don’t hold the physical bitcoin, which solves custody issues and counterparty risks with these less-regulated exchanges.”

    To protect against wild, mistaken price swings, CME will briefly pause trading if the contracts rise or fall 7 per cent or 13 per cent, and prices won’t be allowed to move more than 20 per cent. That wasn’t necessary in its debut. Cboe also has volatility halts, which were triggered in the initial hours of trading a week ago, and its January contract rose as much as 26 per cent on the first day.
    Cboe’s website stalled during its launch. CME’s seemed to weather the traffic.

    “It’s only one-lots,” said Garrett See, chief executive officer of crypto trading firm DV Chain of the initial CME trades. “The prices are moving around pretty fast.” The order book was pretty thin and “the orders that are there are very small.”

    Futures open up arbitrage opportunities — the chance to bet prices of the derivatives and the underlying cryptocurrency will converge. Last week, Cboe’s product was priced as much as 13 per cent higher than bitcoin, but that quickly narrowed. By Sunday night, it was similar to CME’s.
    Some brokerages didn’t immediately give customers access to bitcoin futures. TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. said late Friday that it will offer Cboe’s starting on Monday, though it’ll wait to offer the CME contracts until they demonstrate sufficient liquidity.

     E*Trade Financial Corp. is considering offering bitcoin futures, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.
    “We look at the volume, the open interest and the spreads, and we want to make sure that all those conditions are maturing properly,” said JB Mackenzie, managing director for futures trading at TD Ameritrade. “We have had a lot of customer interest, and we have spent a lot of time educating them as to the differences between the two products.”

    Banks and brokers who are offering access are being cautious. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. demanded some clients set aside collateral equal to 100 per cent of the value of their trades, people familiar with the investments said last week. The guidelines are inclusive of other margin requirements such as Options Clearing Corp.’s 44 per cent, required to clear contracts traded at Cboe, and the 47 per cent CME is demanding.

    It’s not uncommon for a brokerage to impose steeper requirements than the exchange.
    Interactive Brokers Group Inc., which has said it handled 53 per cent of the first day’s trading in Cboe’s bitcoin futures, will require a margin of 50 per cent for long investments, and about 240 per cent for short selling, based on current rates, according to Interactive Brokers spokeswoman Kalen Holliday.


    ALSO READ Analyst who predicted bitcoin's rise now sees it hitting $300,000-$400,000

    Bloomberg.com

    HOW TO BUY BITCOINS

    11:22


    HOW TO BUY BITCOINS

    Step One: Get a Bitcoin wallet

    A bitcoin wallet is where you will store any of the digital currency you purchase.

    There are a number of options available, with different levels of security provided.

    The main options include using your hard drive, for more advanced users, or an online service like Blockchain, which also offers its own app to simplify the process.

    Step Two: Find a Bitcoin broker

    As the popularity of Bitcoin has grown, so too have the number of websites specialising in trading the cryptocurrency.

    Some, like Coinbase, also offer their own app.

    Different brokers will vary on their exchange rates and the fees they charge.

    Step Three: You're ready to buy

    Each Bitcoin broker will require your bitcoin address, which is a unique identifier used to make your transaction.

    If you have used an app to set up your Bitcoin wallet, they will normally have a record of this, but it is not the same as your wallet number.

    Once you provide your broker with this number, you can then pay them via a credit or debit card, or bank transfer, for the desired number of Bitcoins.

    Step Four: Sell, spend or wait for the market to rise

    Once you have bought your Bitcoins, you can then spend them online at shops that will accept them.

    Alternatively, you can wait until they rise in value and try and make a profit.

    The Bitcoin market is notoriously unstable, so there is no guarantee when or if this will happen.



    Source: Bitcoin Profits blog

    Bitcoin has hit $10,000 in value for the first time after a 1,000% increase in its worth this year - and it could 'easily' reach $40,000 by 2018

    10:11
    Bitcoin has hit @10000 in value

    Bitcoin has hit $10,000 in value for the first time after a 1,000% increase in its worth this year - and it could 'easily' reach $40,000 by 2018


    A single Bitcoin has hit $10,000 (£7,500) in value for the first time in the cryptocurrency's history. The digital money was trading at $10,009 per coin on the CEX IO exchange this morning, before dropping back down below this watershed mark. Over this past year, Bitcoin has seen its worth increase by 1,000 per cent and it is continuing to attract investment.

     One former hedge fund manager believes it could 'easily' reach $40,000 (£30,000) by the end of 2018. But the dramatic rise has spared fears of a dangerous bubble which could end in huge losses.

    Bitoin has seen a surge of activity in recent weeks, rising in value exponentially. For comparison, in July 2010, one Bitcoin was worth only $0.08 (6p). Yet the number of transactions involving the currency have not grown at a similar pace. This suggests that it is mainly being used as an investment, rather than paying for online shopping or other goods and services.

     Former Fortress hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz believes Bitcoin's value could multiply more than four times over the course of the next year. Speaking to CNBC, he said: 'Bitcoin could be at $40,000 (£30,000) at the end of 2018. It easily could. 'There's a big wave of money coming, not just here but all around the world.' Bitcoin has seen an eye-watering tenfold increase in its value since the start of the year and financial experts have warned over the expanding bubble.

    Thousands of amateur traders are now piling in and betting huge amounts, while start-up companies are using bitcoin to raise money and avoid the transparency needed in a stock market float. But experts fear that the currency has become a vast speculative bubble detached from reality.

     Watchdogs across the world have warned there could be a sudden massive crash if the market turns. Economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis, has described the fad for online currency as a 'giant speculative bubble' which is bound to end in disaster.

    He said: 'This is neither a serious method of payment nor a good way to store capital. The bitcoin feeds on itself. 'There are no fundamental reasons for its price to reach such levels.' Roubini said the lack of regulation made the currency popular with crime gangs looking to launder money. These warnings have done nothing to dampen enthusiasm, whipped up by celebrities who have endorsed online currencies.

    Boxer Floyd Mayweather, actor Jamie Foxx and reality TV star Paris Hilton have all tweeted their support for bitcoin. Football manager Harry Redknapp – who has previously claimed he doesn't know what an email is or how to send a text message – tweeted support for a lesser-known currency called electroneum.

     Watchdogs around the world are starting to take action on bitcoin trades out of fears that it is being used to fund crime and that vulnerable people are being lured into gambling away their savings.



    Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk

    Bitcoin has surged past the $6,000 mark

    04:18

    Bitcoin has surged past the $6,000 mark.


    A tweet by Swiss blogger @Russian_Market attributed the increase to the fact that China has published no further ban on the cryptocurrency.
    The news comes a month after China clamped down on mainline residents trading cryptocurrencies. Chinese authorities ordered cryptocurrency exchanges to stop trading, causing the value of bitcoin to drop to $3,226.41 on 20 September.

    Since then, the value rose to $5,699.58 at the open today, spiking from $5659.40 at 1.36pm to another all-time high of more than $6,000 this evening.

    Bitcoin is up more than 500 per cent this year.


    Source:  cityam

    Bitcoin news: A Victory For Bitcoin

    04:19
    Bitcoin news: A Victory For Bitcoin

    A Victory For Bitcoin


    While Bitcoin remains highly speculative – I do not view it as a currency and as per my 3 Rules of Bitcoin I am cautious on it, but from a pure trading standpoint, I think it can rally from here in the near term.

    The bullish case is that it survived the recent bearish case so well.

    Bloomberg
    Bitcoin Intraday Prices Since the China ''Crackdown'

    Back on September 15th it appeared to me as though not only China, but a number of public figures were trying to crack down on Bitcoin (link).  It was successful at first as Bitcoin continued its decent, trading as low as $3,000.  It then rebounded sharply.

    The proponents, dare I say, ‘evangelists’ of bitcoin argue that this is exactly why investors should care about bitcoin.  Bitcoin is meant to be ‘separate’ from central banks and governments.  While not its only use, the most diehard cryptocurrency proponents focus on that aspect.

    Well, it seemed to pass this latest test with flying colors.  While it looked like it was being pushed down, it emerged.  I think the fact that is passed this recent test will usher in a new wave of bitcoin enthusiasts.  Basically, some of those who doubt it, will take the recent trading as confirmation that Bitcoin does deliver some of what they have been hearing – the ability to avoid being trapped within the confines of existing national borders, etc.

    The cynic in me, will point out that many people are incentivized to keep Bitcoin going.  Miners, in particular, come to mind.  Bitcoin Mining remains very profitable at these prices.  In a world where there are no rules (Rule #2 of my 3 Rules of Bitcoin) we have to consider, more so than for standard investments, that there may be attempts being made to force Bitcoin to rebound as it is lucrative for them.

    I think the jury is still out on the long term viability of Bitcoin – but from a pure trading standpoint – I’d expect some more demand to develop.  The apparent slowdown in the push to launch Bitcoin ETFs or other products that mainstream investors find easier to use (or are just more comfortable with) will slow the rise.  That ‘mainstream’ capability is a requirement, in my opinion, to an even larger potential surge.

    I view Bitcoin as highly volatile and highly speculative, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a time and place for it to be owned (for disclosure, I don’t own it at the time of writing this, but will likely be adding some back to my portfolio).


    Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed are those of Peter Tchir. This info is for educational and/or entertainment purposes only, so use at your own risk. He's not a broker-dealer or advisor of any kind.

    Don't forget to share A 'Victory For Bitcoin' with friends.

    Source: forbes.



     
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